韦尔股份评级(买入)FY21 revenue in line; Growth story stays intact
股票代码 :603501
股票简称 :韦尔股份
报告名称 :FY21 revenue in line; Growth story stays intact
评级 :买入
行业:半导体
10 Mar 2022
CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update | BUY (Maintain) | ||||||||||||||
Willsemi (603501 CH) | |||||||||||||||
FY21 revenue in line; Growth story stays intact Willsemi announced preliminary results. FY21 revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB24.0bn, in line with our estimate of RMB24.47bn. FY21 net profit was RMB4,468mn-RMB4,868mn (65-80% YoY). Non-mobile CIS delivered significant growth (auto: 85% YoY and security: 70% YoY), which confirmed our previous forecast that non-mobile CIS will underpin future growth. Reiterate BUY with TP revised to RMB333.0 to reflect continuous impact from global semi shortage. FY21 revenue was in line with our estimate. FY21 revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB24.0bn (in line with our estimate of RMB24.47bn), of which semi business was RMB20.5bn (85.4% of total FY21 revenue vs. 87.1% for FY20). 4Q21 revenue declined 3%/3% YoY/QoQ due to seasonality and weaker smartphone sales of Android OEMs. Significant growth in auto/security CIS (85%/70% YoY) confirmed our view that non-mobile CIS will be the future growth driver. Although mobile CIS was negatively affected by weak Android smartphone sales, we believe high-end mobile CIS will continue outgrowing other categories in FY22. For non-mobile CIS segment, the revenue growth was significant. Auto CIS grew 85% YoY to RMB2.3bn and security CIS grew 70% YoY. In addition, Willsemi continues gaining market share in computer, AR/VR and medical devices. We believe Willsemi will maintain its strong momentum in non-mobile CIS in FY22. Breakthrough in touch and display business under tight global supply. Touch and display business’s revenue was RMB1.8bn, growing at 160% YoY due to global semi shortage. Willsemi has started mass production of TDDI products for key smartphone OEMs in FY21. We expect the tight supply will not fully ease this year. In 2022, we expect the company will mass-produce OLED DDIC, which could contribute additional revenue. Reiterate BUY with new TP at RMB333.0 based on 50x FY22E P/E. We trimmed our forecast as the semi shortage is likely to stay longer than expected this year. New TP is based on same 50x FY22 P/E. Currently, Willsemi is trading at 33.8x FY22 P/E, and we believe the stock is attractive. Potential downside risks include: 1) worse-than-expected global economy that curbs consumer spending (i.e. continuous weaker Android smartphone sales) and 2) unfilled demand caused by semi shortage. Earnings Summary | |||||||||||||||
Target Price | RMB 333.00 | ||||||||||||||
(Previous TP RMB 346.60) | |||||||||||||||
Up/Downside | +48% | ||||||||||||||
Current Price | RMB 224.94 | ||||||||||||||
China Technology Sector Lily Yang, Ph.D (852) 3916 3716 lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Alex Ng Lana Lin (852) 3761 8912 lanalin@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data | |||||||||||||||
Mkt Cap (RMBmn) | 196,985 | ||||||||||||||
Avg 3 mths t/o (RMBmn) | 1,661 | ||||||||||||||
52w High/Low (RMB) Total Issued Shares (mn) | 345/218.68 875.7 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Bloomberg Shareholding Structure | |||||||||||||||
Yu Renrong | 30.32% | ||||||||||||||
SX Weihao Equity Invest. FD | 9.23% | ||||||||||||||
HKSCC | 6.55% | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data Share Performance | |||||||||||||||
1-mth 3-mth 6-mth | Absolute -6.6% -28.7% -9.1% | Relative -2.1% -21.2% 1.5% | |||||||||||||
Source: Bloomberg 12-mth Price Performance | |||||||||||||||
(RMB) 400.0 | 603501 CH | shcomp (rebased) | |||||||||||||
350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 | |||||||||||||||
(YE 31 Dec) | FY19A | FY20A | FY21E | FY22E | FY23E | ||||||||||
Revenue (RMB mn) | 13,632 | 19,824 | 24,039 | 31,208 | 37,762 | ||||||||||
0.0 Mar-21 | May-21 | Jul-21 | Sep-21 | Nov-21 | Jan-22 | ||||||||||
YoY growth (%) | - | 45.4% | 21.3% | 29.8% | 21.0% | ||||||||||
Gross profit margin % | 27.4% | 29.9% | 33.9% | 34.1% | 34.0% | Auditor: BDO Related Reports 1. Solid 4Q; Well poised to embrace Reiterate BUY – 28 Jan 2022 2. term positive view unchanged with non-mobile CIS ter future growth – 1 Nov 2021 3. The next chapter beyoe CIS is coming – 27 Aug 2021 | |||||||||
Net profit (RMB mn) | 466 | 2,706 | 4,652 | 5,938 | 7,244 | ||||||||||
Net profit margin % | 3.4% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 19.0% | 19.2% | ||||||||||
EPS (RMB) | 0.76 | 3.21 | 5.22 | 6.66 | 8.12 | ||||||||||
YoY growth (%) | - | 322.4% | 62.6% | 27.6% | 22.0% | ||||||||||
Consensus EPS (RMB) | - | 3.21 | 5.33 | 6.82 | 8.72 | ||||||||||
P/E (x) | 296.0 | 70.1 | 43.1 | 33.8 | 27.7 | ||||||||||
ROE (%) | 5.9% | 23.5% | 29.1% | 25.3% | 22.7% | ||||||||||
Net gearing (%) | 23.5% | 6.7% | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates |
PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR <GO> OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk | 1 |
10 Mar 2022
Figure 1: Earnings revision
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Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates
Figure 2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus
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Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates
Figure 3: Peers valuation
Source: Bloomberg and CMBIGM, as of 9 March 2022. PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE | 2 |
China fabless peers | |||||||||
Willsemi | 603501 CH | 31,177 | 224.94 | 33.8 | 27.7 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 22.7 |
GalaxyCore | 688728 CH | 9,227 | 23.33 | 32.4 | 25.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 22.0 |
Gigadevice | 603986 CH | 15,908 | 150.60 | 35.5 | 28.2 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 19.6 | 20.1 |
Maxscend | 300782 CH | 12,247 | 231.99 | 28.4 | 21.9 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 36.6 | 33.3 |
Goodix | 603160 CH | 6,101 | 84.07 | 32.8 | 25.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 14.9 |
SG Micro | 300661 CH | 11,942 | 319.70 | 84.2 | 60.9 | 26.1 | 19.2 | 32.6 | 31.9 |
Peers Avg. | 42.7 | 32.3 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 25.0 | 24.4 | |||
Peers Median | 34.4 | 26.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 23.9 | 23.2 |
Company | Ticker | Mkt Cap | Price | P/E (x) | FY22E | P/B (x) | FY22E | ROE (%) | |
US$(mn) | (LC) | FY21E | FY21E | FY21E | FY22E |
Global CIS peers | |||||||||
Willsemi | 603501 CH | 31,177 | 224.94 | 33.8 | 27.7 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 22.7 |
GalaxyCore | 688728 CH | 9,227 | 23.33 | 32.4 | 25.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 22.0 |
Sony | SONY US | 122,855 | 97.42 | 16.4 | 15.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 13.7 | 15.2 |
Samsung | 005930 KS | 336,316 | 69500.00 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 14.4 |
STMicroelectronics | STM FP | 32,462 | 32.71 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 27.3 | 22.3 |
ON Semi | ON US | 24,129 | 55.79 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 33.0 | 26.4 |
Peers Avg. | Peers Median | 20.1 | 16.8 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 22.7 | 20.6 | ||
15.3 | 14.1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 23.9 | 22.1 |
10 Mar 2022
Figure 4: 12M forward P/E chart
65 45 40 35 30 25 60 55 50 03-20 06-20 09-20 12-20 03-21 06-21 09-21 12-21 | |
1-yr Forward P/E | Mean |
Mean+1SD | Mean-1SD |
Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates
Figure 5: 12M forward P/B band (RMB)
400 200 150 100 50 0 350 300 250 03/20 06/20 09/20 12/20 03/21 06/21 09/21 12/21 | ||
Closing Px | 34.7x | 40.3x |
46.0x | 51.7x | 57.4x |
Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates
PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 3
10 Mar 2022
Financial Summary
Income statement | Cash flow summary | FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E | |||||||||
YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) | FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E | YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) | |||||||||
Revenue | 13,632 19,824 24,039 31,208 37,762 | Pretax profit | 705 | 2,683 | 4,699 | 5,998 | 7,317 | ||||
COGS | -9,898 -13,894 -15,894 -20,571 -24,912 | D&A | 578 | 765 | 851 | 933 | 1,133 | ||||
Gross Profit | 3,734 | 5,930 | 8,146 10,637 12,850 | Change in working capital | -1,037 | -221 -1,876 -1,389 -1,690 | |||||
SG&A | Others | 560 | 117 | 5 | 468 | 503 | |||||
-1,132 -1,147 -1,142 -1,342 -1,624 | Net cash from operating | 805 | 3,345 | 3,680 | 6,010 | 7,262 | |||||
R&D exp. | -1,282 -1,727 -1,971 -2,497 -3,021 | -743 -1,133 -1,012 -1,454 -1,759 | |||||||||
Financing exp. | -274 | -275 | -290 | -319 | -265 | Capex | |||||
Other opex | -260 | 176 | 392 | 14 | -0 Purchase/sale of investments | -93 | -373 | -178 | -128 | -142 | |
Operating profit | 785 | 2,956 | 5,134 | 6,494 | 7,940 | Purchase/sale of subs | -805 -1,163 | -607 | 42 | 42 | |
Non-operating income | Other | -87 | 38 | 528 | 199 | 194 | |||||
6 | 44 | 1 | 35 | 22 | Net cash from investing | -1,728 -2,631 -1,269 -1,341 -1,665 | |||||
Non-operating exp. | -6 | -9 | -4 | -9 | -9 | 380 | 683 | -97 | 2,153 | 1,725 | |
Pre-tax profit | 784 | 2,991 | 5,132 | 6,520 | 7,954 | Change in shares | |||||
Income tax expenses | Change in debt | 1,017 | 1,567 | 3,355 | 1,192 | -789 | |||||
-79 | -308 | -433 | -522 | -636 | Dividend/interests paid | -319 | -413 | -643 | -928 -1,067 | ||
Net profit | 705 | 2,683 | 4,699 | 5,998 | 7,317 | Other | 41 | -3 | 319 | -160 | 68 |
Non-controlling interests | 240 | -23 | 47 | 60 | 73 | Net cash from financing | 1,120 | 1,835 | 2,934 | 2,258 | -62 |
Net profit to shareholders | 466 | 2,706 | 4,652 | 5,938 | 7,244 | 198 | 2,548 | 5,344 | 6,926 | 5,535 | |
Net change in cash | |||||||||||
Cash, beginning | 2,921 | 3,116 | 5,423 10,706 17,571 | ||||||||
Exchange difference | -2 | -241 | -61 | -61 | -61 | ||||||
Cash, end | 3,116 | 5,423 10,706 17,571 23,046 | |||||||||
Balance sheet | Key ratios | FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E | |||||||||
YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) | FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E | YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) | |||||||||
Current assets | 10,881 13,913 21,140 31,320 39,025 | Revenue by segment | 9,779 14,697 16,730 21,607 26,095 | ||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 3,161 | 5,456 10,723 17,588 23,062 | CMOS | ||||||||
Trade & other receivables | 2,577 | 2,583 | 3,070 | 4,125 | 4,715 | TDDI | 0 | 744 | 1,942 | 2,980 | 3,621 |
Inventories | 4,366 | 5,274 | 6,642 | 8,580 10,085 | Others | 3,853 | 4,383 | 5,368 | 6,621 | 8,047 | |
Other current assets | 777 | 600 | 705 | 1,027 | 1,163 Total | 13,632 19,824 24,039 31,208 37,762 | |||||
Non-current assets | CMOS % | 71.7% | 74.1% | 69.6% | 69.2% | 69.1% | |||||
6,596 | 8,735 10,060 10,798 11,937 | ||||||||||
PPE | 1,588 | 1,871 | 1,768 | 1,950 | 2,244 Growth (%) | 40.5% | 45.4% | 21.3% | 29.8% | 21.0% | |
Intangibles | 1,334 | 1,509 | 1,690 | 1,427 | 1,180 | Revenue | |||||
Goodwill | 2,249 | 2,800 | 3,005 | 2,964 | 2,922 Adj. EBITDA | 92.4% 173.1% | 60.8% | 24.1% | 22.2% | ||
Other non-current assets | 1,425 | 2,556 | 3,596 | 4,457 | 5,591 | Net profit | 221.1% 481.2% | 71.9% | 27.6% | 22.0% | |
Total assets | 17,476 22,648 31,200 42,118 50,962 | 27.4% | 29.9% | 33.9% | 34.1% | 34.0% | |||||
Profit & loss ratio (%) | |||||||||||
Current liabilities | |||||||||||
7,606 | 6,845 | 8,423 11,135 10,372 | Gross margin | ||||||||
ST debt & LT debt to mature | 4,101 | 3,041 | 4,159 | 5,204 | 3,625 | EBITDA margin | 10.0% | 18.8% | 24.9% | 23.8% | 24.0% |
Trade & other payables | 3,027 | 2,544 | 3,378 | 4,174 | 4,971 | Net profit margin | 3.4% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 19.0% | 19.2% |
Other current liabilities | 478 | 1,260 | 886 | 1,757 | 1,775 | 23.5% | 6.7% Net cash Net cash Net cash | ||||
Balance sheet ratio | |||||||||||
Non-current liabilities | |||||||||||
1,915 | 4,278 | 6,778 | 7,503 | 8,639 | Net debt/total equity (%) | ||||||
LT debt | 928 | 3,182 | 3,193 | 3,565 | 4,355 | Debt/EBITDA | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Bonds payables | 0 | 0 | 2,225 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Interest coverage | 4.8 | 12.5 | 16.2 | 16.2 | 19.4 |
Other non-current liabilities | 987 | 1,096 | 1,361 | 1,938 | 2,284 Cash conversion cycle (days) | 130.9 | 123.1 | 133.5 | 128.0 | 128.5 | |
Total liabilities | 9,521 11,123 15,201 18,638 19,011 | ||||||||||
Profitability (%) | 5.9% | 23.5% | 29.1% | 25.3% | 22.7% | ||||||
Total equity | |||||||||||
7,955 11,525 15,999 23,480 31,952 | ROE | ||||||||||
Share capital | 864 | 868 | 892 | 892 | 892 | ROA | 2.7% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 14.2% |
Reserves | 6,650 | 7,248 11,911 12,094 12,277 | 0.76 | 3.21 | 5.22 | 6.66 | 8.12 | ||||
Treasury stock | -649.3 -255.4 -5,040.4 -3,070.3 -1,527.5 | ||||||||||
Retained earnings | 1,002 | 3,895 | 7,809 12,684 18,604 | Per share data (RMB) | |||||||
Other equities | 60.3 -516.2 | 93.8 | 488.1 1,240.4 | EPS | |||||||
Minority interests | 29 | 286 | 333 | 393 | 467 | BVPS | 12.94 | 13.33 | 17.57 | 25.89 | 35.31 |
Total liabilities and equity | 17,476 22,648 31,200 42,118 50,962 |
Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates
PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 4
10 Mar 2022
Disclosures & Disclaimers
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CMBIGM Ratings BUY HOLD SELL NOT RATED | : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM |
OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM :Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM :Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months
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