韦尔股份评级(买入)FY21 revenue in line; Growth story stays intact

发布时间: 2022年03月10日    作者: xn2oyhja    栏目:行业研报

股票代码 :603501
股票简称 :韦尔股份
报告名称 :FY21 revenue in line; Growth story stays intact
评级 :买入
行业:半导体


10 Mar 2022

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company UpdateBUY (Maintain)
Willsemi (603501 CH)
FY21 revenue in line; Growth story stays intact
Willsemi announced preliminary results. FY21 revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB24.0bn, in line with our estimate of RMB24.47bn. FY21 net profit was RMB4,468mn-RMB4,868mn (65-80% YoY). Non-mobile CIS delivered significant growth (auto: 85% YoY and security: 70% YoY), which confirmed our previous forecast that non-mobile CIS will underpin future growth. Reiterate BUY with TP revised to RMB333.0 to reflect continuous impact from global semi shortage.
FY21 revenue was in line with our estimate. FY21 revenue grew 21% YoY to RMB24.0bn (in line with our estimate of RMB24.47bn), of which semi business was RMB20.5bn (85.4% of total FY21 revenue vs. 87.1% for FY20). 4Q21 revenue declined 3%/3% YoY/QoQ due to seasonality and weaker smartphone sales of Android OEMs.
Significant growth in auto/security CIS (85%/70% YoY) confirmed our view that non-mobile CIS will be the future growth driver. Although mobile CIS was negatively affected by weak Android smartphone sales, we believe high-end mobile CIS will continue outgrowing other categories in FY22. For non-mobile CIS segment, the revenue growth was significant. Auto CIS grew 85% YoY to RMB2.3bn and security CIS grew 70% YoY. In addition, Willsemi continues gaining market share in computer, AR/VR and medical devices. We believe Willsemi will maintain its strong momentum in non-mobile CIS in FY22.
Breakthrough in touch and display business under tight global supply. Touch and display business’s revenue was RMB1.8bn, growing at 160% YoY due to global semi shortage. Willsemi has started mass production of TDDI products for key smartphone OEMs in FY21. We expect the tight supply will not fully ease this year. In 2022, we expect the company will mass-produce OLED DDIC, which could contribute additional revenue.
Reiterate BUY with new TP at RMB333.0 based on 50x FY22E P/E. We trimmed our forecast as the semi shortage is likely to stay longer than expected this year. New TP is based on same 50x FY22 P/E. Currently, Willsemi is trading at 33.8x FY22 P/E, and we believe the stock is attractive. Potential downside risks include: 1) worse-than-expected global economy that curbs consumer spending (i.e. continuous weaker Android smartphone sales) and 2) unfilled demand caused by semi shortage.
Earnings Summary
Target Price RMB 333.00
(Previous TP RMB 346.60)
Up/Downside +48%
Current Price RMB 224.94
China Technology Sector
Lily Yang, Ph.D
(852) 3916 3716
lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk

Alex Ng


Lana Lin
(852) 3761 8912
lanalin@cmbi.com.hk

Stock Data
Mkt Cap (RMBmn) 196,985
Avg 3 mths t/o (RMBmn) 1,661
52w High/Low (RMB)
Total Issued Shares (mn)
345/218.68 875.7
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding Structure
Yu Renrong 30.32%
SX Weihao Equity Invest. FD 9.23%
HKSCC 6.55%
Source: Company data
Share Performance
1-mth 3-mth 6-mth Absolute
-6.6%
-28.7%
-9.1%
Relative -2.1%
-21.2%
1.5%
Source: Bloomberg
12-mth Price Performance
(RMB) 400.0603501 CHshcomp (rebased)
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
(YE 31 Dec) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn) 13,632 19,824 24,039 31,208 37,762
0.0
Mar-21
May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22
YoY growth (%) - 45.4% 21.3% 29.8% 21.0%
Gross profit margin % 27.4% 29.9% 33.9% 34.1% 34.0% Auditor: BDO
Related Reports
1. Solid 4Q; Well poised to embrace Reiterate BUY – 28 Jan 2022
2. term positive view unchanged with non-mobile CIS ter future growth – 1 Nov 2021
3. The next chapter beyoe CIS is coming – 27 Aug 2021
Net profit (RMB mn) 466 2,706 4,652 5,938 7,244
Net profit margin % 3.4% 13.7% 19.4% 19.0% 19.2%
EPS (RMB) 0.76 3.21 5.22 6.66 8.12
YoY growth (%) - 322.4% 62.6% 27.6% 22.0%
Consensus EPS (RMB) - 3.21 5.33 6.82 8.72
P/E (x) 296.0 70.1 43.1 33.8 27.7
ROE (%) 5.9% 23.5% 29.1% 25.3% 22.7%
Net gearing (%) 23.5% 6.7% net cash net cash net cash
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR <GO> OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1

10 Mar 2022

Figure 1: Earnings revision

US$ mn FY21E New FY23E
FY22E
Revenue 24,039 31,208 37,762
Gross Profit 8,146 10,637 12,850
Operating Profit 5,134 6,494 7,940
Net profit 4,652 5,938 7,244
EPS (US$ cents) 5.218 6.660 8.125
FY21E Old FY23E
FY22E
24,470 32,968 41,635
8,261 11,260 14,293
5,146 6,801 8,885
4,656 6,180 8,056
5.222 6.932 9.035
FY21E Diff (%) FY23E
FY22E
-2% -5% -9%
-1% -6% -10%
0% -5% -11%
0% -4% -10%
0% -4% -10%
Gross Margin 33.9% 34.1% 34.0%
Operating Margin 21.4% 20.8% 21.0%
Net Margin 19.4% 19.0% 19.2%
33.8% 34.2% 34.3%
21.0% 20.6% 21.3%
19.0% 18.7% 19.3%
0.1 ppt -0.1 ppt -0.3 ppt
0.3 ppt 0.2 ppt -0.3 ppt
0.3 ppt 0.3 ppt -0.2 ppt

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensus

US$ mn FY21E CMBIGM FY23E
FY22E
Revenue 24,039 31,208 37,762
Gross Profit 8,146 10,637 12,850
Operating Profit 5,134 6,494 7,940
Net profit 4,652 5,938 7,244
EPS (US$ cents) 5.218 6.660 8.125
FY21E Consensus FY23E
FY22E
26,091 33,352 41,037
8,795 11,249 13,883
5,180 6,674 8,483
4,653 5,935 7,619
5.334 6.818 8.720
FY21E Diff (%) FY23E
FY22E
-8% -6% -8%
-7% -5% -7%
-1% -3% -6%
0% 0% -5%
-2% -2% -7%
Gross Margin 33.9% 34.1% 34.0%
Operating Margin 21.4% 20.8% 21.0%
Net Margin 19.4% 19.0% 19.2%
33.7% 33.7% 33.8%
19.9% 20.0% 20.7%
17.8% 17.8% 18.6%
0.2 ppt 0.4 ppt 0.2 ppt
1.5 ppt 0.8 ppt 0.4 ppt
1.5 ppt 1.2 ppt 0.6 ppt

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 3: Peers valuation

Source: Bloomberg and CMBIGM, as of 9 March 2022.
PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE
2
China fabless peers
Willsemi 603501 CH 31,177 224.94 33.8 27.7 8.7 6.4 5.3 22.7
GalaxyCore 688728 CH 9,227 23.33 32.4 25.1 7.1 5.5 1.8 22.0
Gigadevice 603986 CH 15,908 150.60 35.5 28.2 6.5 5.5 19.6 20.1
Maxscend 300782 CH 12,247 231.99 28.4 21.9 9.8 7.0 36.6 33.3
Goodix 603160 CH 6,101 84.07 32.8 25.1 3.9 3.5 13.0 14.9
SG Micro 300661 CH 11,942 319.70 84.2 60.9 26.1 19.2 32.6 31.9
Peers Avg.42.7 32.3 10.8 8.1 25.0 24.4
Peers Median34.4 26.5 8.2 6.1 23.9 23.2

Company Ticker Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) FY22E P/B (x) FY22E ROE (%)
US$(mn) (LC) FY21E FY21E FY21E FY22E
Global CIS peers
Willsemi 603501 CH 31,177 224.94 33.8 27.7 8.7 6.4 5.3 22.7
GalaxyCore 688728 CH 9,227 23.33 32.4 25.1 7.1 5.5 1.8 22.0
Sony SONY US 122,855 97.42 16.4 15.2 2.3 2.0 13.7 15.2
Samsung 005930 KS 336,316 69500.00 10.0 8.8 1.4 1.2 14.4 14.4
STMicroelectronics STM FP 32,462 32.71 11.4 10.8 2.7 2.2 27.3 22.3
ON Semi ON US 24,129 55.79 13.4 12.4 4.2 3.5 33.0 26.4
Peers Avg. Peers Median 20.1 16.8 5.0 3.9 22.7 20.6
15.3 14.1 4.4 3.7 23.9 22.1

10 Mar 2022

Figure 4: 12M forward P/E chart

65
45 40 35 30 25
60
55
50

03-20 06-20 09-20 12-20 03-21 06-21 09-21 12-21
1-yr Forward P/EMean
Mean+1SDMean-1SD

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

Figure 5: 12M forward P/B band (RMB)

400
200
150
100
50
0
350
300
250
03/20 06/20 09/20 12/20 03/21 06/21 09/21 12/21
Closing Px34.7x40.3x
46.0x51.7x57.4x

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 3

10 Mar 2022

Financial Summary

Income statementCash flow summaryFY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn)
Revenue 13,632 19,824 24,039 31,208 37,762 Pretax profit 705 2,683 4,699 5,998 7,317
COGS -9,898 -13,894 -15,894 -20,571 -24,912 D&A 578 765 851 933 1,133
Gross Profit 3,734 5,930 8,146 10,637 12,850 Change in working capital -1,037 -221 -1,876 -1,389 -1,690
SG&AOthers 560 117 5 468 503
-1,132 -1,147 -1,142 -1,342 -1,624 Net cash from operating 805 3,345 3,680 6,010 7,262
R&D exp. -1,282 -1,727 -1,971 -2,497 -3,021 -743 -1,133 -1,012 -1,454 -1,759
Financing exp.-274 -275 -290 -319 -265 Capex
Other opex -260 176 392 14 -0 Purchase/sale of investments -93 -373 -178 -128 -142
Operating profit785 2,956 5,134 6,494 7,940 Purchase/sale of subs -805 -1,163 -607 42 42
Non-operating incomeOther-87 38 528 199 194
6 44 1 35 22 Net cash from investing -1,728 -2,631 -1,269 -1,341 -1,665
Non-operating exp.-6 -9 -4 -9 -9 380 683 -97 2,153 1,725
Pre-tax profit 784 2,991 5,132 6,520 7,954 Change in shares
Income tax expenses Change in debt 1,017 1,567 3,355 1,192 -789
-79 -308 -433 -522 -636 Dividend/interests paid -319 -413 -643 -928 -1,067
Net profit705 2,683 4,699 5,998 7,317 Other41 -3 319 -160 68
Non-controlling interests240 -23 47 60 73 Net cash from financing 1,120 1,835 2,934 2,258 -62
Net profit to shareholders466 2,706 4,652 5,938 7,244 198 2,548 5,344 6,926 5,535
Net change in cash
Cash, beginning 2,921 3,116 5,423 10,706 17,571
Exchange difference -2 -241 -61 -61 -61
Cash, end 3,116 5,423 10,706 17,571 23,046
Balance sheetKey ratiosFY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E
YE 31 Dec (RMB mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E YE 31 Dec (RMB mn)
Current assets 10,881 13,913 21,140 31,320 39,025 Revenue by segment 9,779 14,697 16,730 21,607 26,095
Cash & equivalents 3,161 5,456 10,723 17,588 23,062 CMOS
Trade & other receivables 2,577 2,583 3,070 4,125 4,715 TDDI 0 744 1,942 2,980 3,621
Inventories 4,366 5,274 6,642 8,580 10,085 Others 3,853 4,383 5,368 6,621 8,047
Other current assets 777 600 705 1,027 1,163 Total13,632 19,824 24,039 31,208 37,762
Non-current assetsCMOS %71.7% 74.1% 69.6% 69.2% 69.1%
6,596 8,735 10,060 10,798 11,937
PPE 1,588 1,871 1,768 1,950 2,244 Growth (%) 40.5% 45.4% 21.3% 29.8% 21.0%
Intangibles 1,334 1,509 1,690 1,427 1,180 Revenue
Goodwill 2,249 2,800 3,005 2,964 2,922 Adj. EBITDA 92.4% 173.1% 60.8% 24.1% 22.2%
Other non-current assets1,425 2,556 3,596 4,457 5,591 Net profit 221.1% 481.2% 71.9% 27.6% 22.0%
Total assets17,476 22,648 31,200 42,118 50,962 27.4% 29.9% 33.9% 34.1% 34.0%
Profit & loss ratio (%)
Current liabilities
7,606 6,845 8,423 11,135 10,372 Gross margin
ST debt & LT debt to mature 4,101 3,041 4,159 5,204 3,625 EBITDA margin10.0% 18.8% 24.9% 23.8% 24.0%
Trade & other payables 3,027 2,544 3,378 4,174 4,971 Net profit margin 3.4% 13.7% 19.4% 19.0% 19.2%
Other current liabilities 478 1,260 886 1,757 1,775 23.5% 6.7% Net cash Net cash Net cash
Balance sheet ratio
Non-current liabilities
1,915 4,278 6,778 7,503 8,639 Net debt/total equity (%)
LT debt 928 3,182 3,193 3,565 4,355 Debt/EBITDA3.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1
Bonds payables 0 0 2,225 2,000 2,000 Interest coverage 4.8 12.5 16.2 16.2 19.4
Other non-current liabilities 987 1,096 1,361 1,938 2,284 Cash conversion cycle (days) 130.9 123.1 133.5 128.0 128.5
Total liabilities9,521 11,123 15,201 18,638 19,011
Profitability (%)5.9% 23.5% 29.1% 25.3% 22.7%
Total equity
7,955 11,525 15,999 23,480 31,952 ROE
Share capital 864 868 892 892 892 ROA 2.7% 11.9% 14.9% 14.1% 14.2%
Reserves 6,650 7,248 11,911 12,094 12,277 0.76 3.21 5.22 6.66 8.12
Treasury stock -649.3 -255.4 -5,040.4 -3,070.3 -1,527.5
Retained earnings 1,002 3,895 7,809 12,684 18,604 Per share data (RMB)
Other equities 60.3 -516.2 93.8 488.1 1,240.4 EPS
Minority interests29 286 333 393 467 BVPS12.94 13.33 17.57 25.89 35.31
Total liabilities and equity17,476 22,648 31,200 42,118 50,962

Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates

PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 4

10 Mar 2022

Disclosures & Disclaimers

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Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) will deal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report.

CMBIGM Ratings BUY
HOLD
SELL
NOT RATED
: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months : Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months : Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months : Stock is not rated by CMBIGM

OUTPERFORM : Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months MARKET-PERFORM :Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months UNDERPERFORM :Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months

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